Super El Niños can significantly alter weather patterns around the world
A Super El Niño is an unusually strong El Niño event, occurring when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean become much warmer than average for an extended period. These events are rare, the best-known having occurred in 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16.
While there is no official scientific definition of "super" El Niño, the term is commonly used for the strongest El Niño events.
For Colorado, the impacts are less predictable than in many other regions. El Niño changes the odds of certain weather patterns rather than guaranteeing specific conditions.
Potential Effects on Colorado: Increased Chance of Moisture
A strong El Niño often favors wetter-than-average conditions, especially in southern Colorado, during the fall, winter, and sometimes spring. That can benefit reservoirs, soil moisture, and winter snowpack (although every event is different).
Snowfall
Southern mountain ranges may have an increased chance of above-average snowfall during winter. Northern Colorado tends to show a weaker or more variable response.
Better Soil Moisture
If additional precipitation materializes, landscapes, forests, and gardens may recover from drought stress more quickly, and spring wildflowers can be more abundant.
Wildfire
Research suggests that the spring and summer following a fall El Niño may see a reduced risk of widespread wildfire across parts of the Southwest and Rocky Mountains because of improved moisture, though this depends on how much precipitation actually falls.
Temperature
Colorado can still experience warm periods during an El Niño. A wetter pattern does not necessarily mean a cooler one, and heat waves remain possible.
What it could mean for gardeners if Colorado receives more moisture than normal
Keep Expectations Realistic
Colorado sits in a transition zone where many weather systems interact. Even during a strong El Niño, local weather is influenced by elevation, storm tracks, the North American monsoon, and other climate patterns. As a result, one part of the state may be wetter than average while another remains dry.
Current Outlook
Climate agencies are monitoring a developing El Niño and some forecast models indicate it could become very strong, but there is still uncertainty about its ultimate strength and exactly how it will affect Colorado. Forecast confidence generally improves as the event develops through late summer and fall.
NOAA on Super El Niño
Climate scientists weight in - CU Boulder article
9News video on this year's expected strong El Niño
Monsoon rain forecast as Super El Niño strengthens
The Centuries Old History of Super El Niño
While there is no official scientific definition of "super" El Niño, the term is commonly used for the strongest El Niño events.
For Colorado, the impacts are less predictable than in many other regions. El Niño changes the odds of certain weather patterns rather than guaranteeing specific conditions.
Potential Effects on Colorado: Increased Chance of Moisture
A strong El Niño often favors wetter-than-average conditions, especially in southern Colorado, during the fall, winter, and sometimes spring. That can benefit reservoirs, soil moisture, and winter snowpack (although every event is different).
Snowfall
Southern mountain ranges may have an increased chance of above-average snowfall during winter. Northern Colorado tends to show a weaker or more variable response.
Better Soil Moisture
If additional precipitation materializes, landscapes, forests, and gardens may recover from drought stress more quickly, and spring wildflowers can be more abundant.
Wildfire
Research suggests that the spring and summer following a fall El Niño may see a reduced risk of widespread wildfire across parts of the Southwest and Rocky Mountains because of improved moisture, though this depends on how much precipitation actually falls.
Temperature
Colorado can still experience warm periods during an El Niño. A wetter pattern does not necessarily mean a cooler one, and heat waves remain possible.
What it could mean for gardeners if Colorado receives more moisture than normal
- Less irrigation may be needed
- Trees and shrubs could experience less drought stress
- Lawns and perennial gardens may remain greener longer
- There may also be more weed pressure and a greater risk of fungal diseases because of increased humidity and rainfall
Keep Expectations Realistic
Colorado sits in a transition zone where many weather systems interact. Even during a strong El Niño, local weather is influenced by elevation, storm tracks, the North American monsoon, and other climate patterns. As a result, one part of the state may be wetter than average while another remains dry.
Current Outlook
Climate agencies are monitoring a developing El Niño and some forecast models indicate it could become very strong, but there is still uncertainty about its ultimate strength and exactly how it will affect Colorado. Forecast confidence generally improves as the event develops through late summer and fall.
NOAA on Super El Niño
Climate scientists weight in - CU Boulder article
9News video on this year's expected strong El Niño
Monsoon rain forecast as Super El Niño strengthens
The Centuries Old History of Super El Niño